FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
FC Ingolstadt 04
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
SV Wehen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.65(+21% edge)
Recommended Bets: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen: Match Preview
FC Ingolstadt 04 come into this fixture on the back of three consecutive league defeats, sitting 14th with eight points from seven matches and a negative goal difference. Their home form is a concern, with no wins and just three goals scored in three attempts at Audi Sportpark. SV Wehen, meanwhile, are in the relegation zone at 19th, having managed only one win all season and conceding nearly two goals per game. Both sides need a result to arrest their slide but have shown little attacking conviction in recent weeks.
The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and soft defences. Ingolstadt average 1.0 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game, while Wehen's numbers are even weaker at 0.71 for and 1.86 against. Shot volumes are modest for both, with neither side averaging above four shots on target per match over the last five. First-half goals are rare—just five combined in the last five matches for both teams—suggesting a slow start. Set-piece threat is muted, with both sides averaging under 2.5 corners per game recently, and discipline is middling, with just under two cards per side per match.
Given these underlying rates, the model projects a low-scoring encounter, with the draw the most likely result. While H2H history shows some high-scoring matches, recent form and current season averages point to a 1-1 or 1-0 either way. The most plausible deviation is a defensive lapse leading to a second-half winner, but neither attack inspires confidence to dominate.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen that most previews miss.
- 1Ingolstadt have scored just three goals in three home matches, conceding seven, for an average of 3.33 total goals per home game.
- 2Wehen have failed to score in three of their seven league matches, and their away games average just 2.67 goals.
- 3The last three H2H meetings at Ingolstadt have produced two away wins for Wehen and one goalless draw.
Who do you think wins: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.65
The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw, well above the 27.4% implied by current odds, with both teams averaging just over a goal per game and struggling for attacking consistency.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.37
Season-long rates for both sides (Ingolstadt 57% over 2.5, Wehen 43%) and low shot/goal conversion point to a median goal expectation close to 2, offering value on the under.
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BTTS: No@ 2.42
Both teams have failed to score in 3 of their last 10 combined matches, and neither averages more than 1 goal per game on the season, making BTTS 'no' a marginal value.
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More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a low-to-mid scoring contest between two sides with blunt attacks and defensive vulnerabilities, but little to separate them in overall quality. Ingolstadt's home record is poor (0W 1D 2L), while Wehen's away numbers are only marginally better. The most likely outcome is a draw, with both teams likely to struggle for clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ingolstadt score just 1.0 goals per game and concede 1.57, with a home record of 3 for and 7 against in three matches.
- →Wehen average 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game, with only 3 goals in 3 away matches.
- →Neither side has a clean sheet rate above 29%, and both have failed to score in multiple recent outings.
🚩 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 3.8 for SV Wehen, for an expected total of 7.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 38% · Over 10.5: 16%.
How FC Ingolstadt 04 and SV Wehen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
FC Ingolstadt 04last 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SV Wehenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ingolstadt have lost three straight league matches and have not won at home this season, managing just three goals in those games. Wehen's form is similarly poor, with one win in seven and a -8 goal difference, though they did manage a 2-0 away win at Fortuna Köln recently. Both teams are trending downward, with neither attack showing consistency.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
The head-to-head record is narrowly in Wehen's favour, with four wins to Ingolstadt's three in the last eight meetings. Notably, Wehen have twice won away at Ingolstadt in recent years, but the most recent fixture at this venue ended goalless. H2H matches have often been open, but recent form suggests a tighter contest.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
3
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins
1
Draws
4
SV Wehen wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
The biggest model/market divergence is on the draw, where the model's 33% probability outpaces the 27% implied by odds of 3.65. Unders and BTTS 'no' also show marginal value, reflecting the low scoring rates and the lack of attacking threat from both sides. Backing the draw or a low goal count is supported by the underlying numbers.
Odds from Betano. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen
- ⚠️Small sample size for recent matches and some missing shot data may understate volatility.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown streaky form and are capable of anomalous results, as seen in H2H history.
- ⚠️Lineups and tactical changes could shift the goal environment, especially if either side alters their defensive shape.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 SV WehenThe model's final call is a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long scoring rates (Ingolstadt 1.0, Wehen 0.71 per game) and their inability to turn possession into clear chances. The biggest risk to this projection is a defensive error or red card tipping the balance, but on underlying numbers, neither side deserves clear favouritism.
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen: Common Questions
Who will win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
The model gives Ingolstadt a 38% chance to win, the draw a 33% probability, and Wehen a 29% chance. With both sides struggling for goals and form, the draw is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, with both sides averaging around one goal per game and each keeping just one clean sheet in their last five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen?
The probability for under 2.5 goals is 49%, compared to odds-implied 42%, suggesting a slight value edge on the under given both teams' low attacking output and recent match patterns.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.