Parma vs Genoa Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Parma
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Genoa
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3(+8% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Parma Edge Genoa in Tactical Battle at the Tardini
Parma secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Genoa at the Stadio Ennio Tardini in a match defined by tactical discipline and clinical finishing. Despite Genoa dominating possession with 58% and firing 12 shots (5 on target), it was the hosts who struck first through a well-worked goal in the 38th minute. Genoa responded after the break, finally breaching Parma's defense in the 70th minute to level the score and set up a tense finale. However, Parma showed resilience and seized their moment late on, netting the decisive goal in the 80th minute to reclaim the lead. Both sides picked up three yellow cards apiece in a fiercely contested encounter, but Parma's defensive organization and opportunism in front of goal ultimately made the difference.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
38' — Goal
Parma open the scoring, capitalizing on a rare chance to take a 1-0 lead.
70' — Goal
Genoa equalize after sustained pressure, bringing the match level at 1-1.
80' — Goal
Parma retake the lead with a decisive finish, ultimately sealing the victory.
Various' — Yellow cards
Both teams pick up three yellow cards each in a fiercely contested midfield battle.
Parma
Parma delivered a disciplined performance, absorbing Genoa's pressure and making the most of their limited chances. With just 42% possession and only 5 shots (2 on target), the hosts were clinical when it mattered, converting both of their shots on target into goals. The back three, marshaled by Diego Carlos, stood firm for much of the match, while the midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Genoa's rhythm. Despite conceding an equalizer in the second half, Parma responded with character, finding a late winner and defending resolutely in the closing stages to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Genoa
Genoa controlled much of the game, enjoying 58% of the ball and creating more chances with 12 shots and 5 on target. Their midfield, anchored by Djibril Sow and Morten Frendrup, dictated the tempo and kept Parma pinned back for long stretches. However, a lack of cutting edge in the final third and some lapses at the back proved costly. After equalizing in the 70th minute, Genoa looked poised to push for a winner but were undone by Parma's swift response. Despite their territorial dominance and greater attacking threat, Genoa left the Tardini empty-handed.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in matching 3-4-2-1 formations, leading to a congested midfield and a tactical chess match. Genoa sought to dominate possession and build through their double pivot of Sow and Frendrup, using wingbacks to stretch the play. Parma, meanwhile, focused on defensive solidity, maintaining a compact shape and looking to break quickly when opportunities arose. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half saw Genoa push higher in search of a winner after equalizing, but Parma's disciplined structure and ability to exploit spaces left behind proved decisive. Set pieces and transitions played a crucial role, with Parma's efficiency in front of goal ultimately the difference.
Turning Point
Parma's 80th-minute goal, coming just ten minutes after Genoa's equalizer, swung the momentum back to the hosts and proved to be the match-winner.
Man of the Match
El Bilal Touré
Scored a crucial goal and led Parma's line with energy and composure, making the difference in a tight contest.
Parma vs Genoa: Match Preview
Parma and Genoa both arrive in urgent need of a spark, sitting 17th and 19th respectively with just a point apiece after three and four games. Parma have managed only one goal in Serie A so far, while Genoa’s defensive frailties have been exposed with eight conceded, though their single away trip ended in a narrow 1-0 defeat. The market edges Genoa as slight favourites (2.55 vs 3.00 for Parma), but the underlying numbers suggest little between these sides.
Statistically, this is a clash of blunt attacks and leaky defences. Parma’s last five matches average just 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Genoa are slightly more open at both ends (1.2 for, 1.8 against). Both sides have failed to score in more than half of their league fixtures, and clean sheets have been rare—Parma none in Serie A, Genoa likewise. Set-piece threat is modest, with Parma averaging 4.8 corners and Genoa 5.6 per game, but neither side has shown a clinical edge. Discipline could play a role, as Genoa average 2 yellows and 0.2 reds per match.
Given the lack of attacking punch and recent H2H history (two straight 0-0s), the model expects a cagey affair. The most likely outcome is a draw, with under 2.5 goals strongly favoured. Any edge lies in the market’s slight underestimation of the draw and the low goal line, as both teams’ current trajectories point to a tense, low-scoring contest.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Parma vs Genoa
The strongest value lies on the draw and under 2.5 goals, both offering an 8% edge over market prices. The odds slightly favour Genoa, but the data points to a much more balanced contest with a high probability of a low-scoring deadlock. No significant value is found in the BTTS or outright home/away win markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Parma vs Genoa(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 2.95
The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw (implied odds 2.78), while the market price of 3.00 (implied 33%) offers an 8% edge. Both teams have struggled for goals (Parma 0.33, Genoa 0.5 per game in Serie A), and three of their last ten H2H meetings ended level, including both last season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.5
With a model probability of 72% for under 2.5 goals and the market implying just 67%, there’s an 8% edge. Both sides have failed to score in over half their league matches, and only one of their combined seven Serie A games has gone over 2.5.
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Parma vs Genoa Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Parma vs Genoa that most previews miss.
- 1Just one of the last seven combined Serie A matches involving these teams has gone over 2.5 goals.
- 2Parma have failed to score in three of their last five matches across all competitions.
- 3Genoa have seen both teams score in only three of their last five, but have not kept a clean sheet in any of those games.
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Parma vs Genoa Prediction
Bookmakers rate this as a marginally Genoa-favoured contest, but the data points to a near coin-flip with a significant chance of stalemate. Both sides are winless and struggling for attacking fluency, while defensive lapses have been more pronounced for Genoa. The value is on a low-scoring draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Parma average just 0.33 goals scored per Serie A match this season.
Defence
- →Genoa have conceded eight goals in four league games, but only one away from home.
Match Context
- →Three of the last ten H2H meetings have ended 0-0 or 1-1.
🚩 Parma vs Genoa Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Parma and 4.4 for Genoa, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 66% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Parma and Genoa Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Parma vs Genoa Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Parmalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Genoalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Parma are winless in Serie A, drawing just once and scoring only once in three matches, while their last five overall show a single win in the Coppa Italia. Genoa have endured a rougher start, losing three of four league games and conceding eight, but managed a point last time out. Both teams are searching for stability and confidence, with neither showing momentum.
Parma vs Genoa — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Parma vs Genoa
Head-to-head history is tightly contested, with four Parma wins, three Genoa wins, and three draws in the last ten. Notably, both meetings last season ended 0-0, and only one of the last five has produced more than two goals. The fixture has a recent tendency toward stalemate and low scoring.
Parma vs Genoa Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Parma wins
3
Draws
3
Genoa wins
Things to Watch: Parma vs Genoa
- ⚠️Both teams are early in the season and may still be adjusting tactically.
- ⚠️Recent lineups show some rotation, which could affect chemistry.
- ⚠️A single early goal could open up the match, raising the risk on unders and the draw.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Parma 1–1 GenoaA 1-1 draw is the likeliest result, driven by both sides’ lack of attacking output (Parma 0.33, Genoa 0.5 goals per game in Serie A) and a recurring H2H pattern of low-scoring stalemates. The biggest threat to this call is if either defence collapses early, but recent evidence points to a tight, attritional contest.
Parma vs Genoa: Common Questions
Who will win Parma vs Genoa?
The model rates this fixture as almost perfectly balanced: Parma 32%, Draw 36%, Genoa 32%. With both teams winless and struggling for goals, the draw is the most probable outcome.
Will Parma vs Genoa be under 2.5 goals?
There is a 72% probability of under 2.5 goals, with both sides averaging less than one goal scored per game and only one of their seven combined league matches going over this line.
Is there value in betting the draw in Parma vs Genoa?
Yes, the model finds an 8% edge on the draw at odds of 3.00, with a 36% model probability versus the market’s 33% implied. Recent H2H results and both teams’ current form reinforce the value.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Parma vs Genoa: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.