AD Ceuta FC vs Cadiz Prediction
Segunda División · Spain
AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz
📍 Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
🗓️ Saturday, 28 Mar 2026 at 13:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 39.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 25.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
60.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 4.33
EV: 73.0%
Model probability for BTTS (yes) is 40%, while market implies only 23%. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities and Ceuta's home games see goals. Value at this price.
1x2 — draw@ 3.4
EV: 44.0%
Model gives 36% draw probability vs 29% implied. Both teams are inconsistent, recent H2H was a draw, and neither side is in strong form.
Match Analysis
AD Ceuta FC and Cadiz both enter this fixture on the back of inconsistent form, with Ceuta suffering three straight defeats and Cadiz losing four of their last five. Ceuta are much stronger at home, but their defence has been leaky recently. Cadiz have struggled for goals but are slightly more solid away. With both teams' recent struggles, a low-scoring, tense match is likely, with a draw the most probable outcome. However, defensive lapses on both sides mean a BTTS outcome is more likely than the market suggests.
Key Factors
- →Ceuta have lost 3 in a row but have a strong home record (10W, 1D, 4L).
- →Cadiz have only 1 win in their last 5 and struggle to score (0.6 goals/game last 5).
- →Ceuta's defence has conceded 13 in last 5 games (2.6/game).
- →Both teams have a high season over 1.5 goals rate (Ceuta 87%, Cadiz 71%).
- →Head-to-head history is very limited and inconclusive.
- →No significant injuries for either team.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Small H2H sample size (only 2 matches).
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is poor and unpredictable.
- ⚠️Some missing advanced stats (shots, xG, etc.) for many recent matches.
- ⚠️Market may move closer to kickoff; odds referenced as of data timestamp.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.