Alaves vs Girona Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Alaves
Girona
📍 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
🗓️ Monday, 23 Feb 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 30.0%
Draw: 41.0%
Away: 29.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
1x2 — draw@ 2.88
EV: 18.0%
Both teams have similar league records and defensive issues, with recent form and H2H history suggesting a tight, low-scoring contest. The draw probability is higher than the market implies, providing a small value edge.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table clash between two sides with similar defensive frailties and inconsistent attacking output. Alaves have a slightly better home record, but Girona have shown resilience on the road. Both teams struggle to keep clean sheets, but neither is prolific in attack. Recent matches and historical head-to-heads point towards a low-scoring, closely contested game, with a draw the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game and concede more than 1 goal per game.
- →Alaves' home record (5W-3D-4L) is only marginally better than Girona's away record (3W-4D-5L).
- →Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last 5 league games.
- →Recent head-to-heads are tight: 4 of last 6 meetings have been draws or decided by a single goal.
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favor under 2.5 goals, matching the model's low goal expectation.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats are missing (shots, lineups), slightly reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️Low-scoring games can be decided by a single error or set piece, increasing variance.
- ⚠️Market odds for low goal totals and BTTS 'no' are very short, offering no value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.