Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Alaves
Osasuna
📍 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
🗓️ Sunday, 5 Apr 2026 at 19:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 32.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 30.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
1x2 — draw@ 3.1
EV: 18.0%
Both teams have struggled to win consistently, with Alaves drawing 5 of 14 at home and Osasuna drawing 3 of 15 away. Recent form and H2H suggest a close contest, and the model's draw probability (0.38) exceeds the implied odds probability (0.32), giving a modest value edge.
Match Analysis
This is a tense mid-table clash between Alaves and Osasuna, with both sides showing inconsistent form and low attacking output. Alaves have been leaky at the back recently (2.2 conceded per last 5), but Osasuna's away attack is among the league's weakest (9 goals in 15 away). Both teams have a high share of draws and low over 2.5 rates. H2H history is balanced but slightly favors Osasuna. Expect a tight, cagey match with few clear chances and a strong likelihood of a draw or narrow win either way.
Key Factors
- →Alaves have just 5 home wins in 14, with a negative goal difference at home.
- →Osasuna's away record is poor (2W, 3D, 10L), with only 9 goals scored and 19 conceded.
- →Both teams average under 1.2 goals scored per game over the season.
- →Recent form: Alaves (WDLLD), Osasuna (WLDLW) – both inconsistent.
- →Last 10 H2H: Osasuna 5W, Alaves 3W, 2D – but recent draws and close games.
- →Both teams have a low clean sheet rate (Alaves 10%, Osasuna 24%).
- →Low over 2.5 goal rates (both 44.8%), and model projects low goal expectancy.
- →No significant injuries reported.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, lineups) are missing for both teams.
- ⚠️Both teams' form is volatile; late-season motivation could impact approach.
- ⚠️Low-scoring games can be decided by set pieces or errors.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds on under/BTTS are very short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.