Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Alaves
Villarreal
📍 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
🗓️ Friday, 13 Mar 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 18.0%
Draw: 27.0%
Away: 55.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
64.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
double_chance — X2@ 1.18
Villarreal are clear favorites based on league position, form, and H2H trends. Alaves have poor recent results and a negative goal difference, while Villarreal are top 4 and strong away. The odds are low but the probability of Villarreal avoiding defeat is high.
1x2 — away@ 1.55
Villarreal's attack (1.85 gpg season, 1.8 last 5) is significantly better than Alaves' (0.88 gpg season, 1.0 last 5). Villarreal have won 5 of the last 10 H2H, including the reverse fixture this season. Alaves have only 11.5% clean sheets and are in poor form.
ou_2_5 — under@ 1.15
Both teams have strong under trends: Alaves under 2.5 in 57.7% of matches, Villarreal under in 42.3%. Alaves struggle to score and Villarreal's away matches average fewer goals.
Match Analysis
Villarreal travel to Alaves as clear favorites, with a strong league position, better form, and a superior attack. Alaves are struggling, with just 1 win in their last 8 and a leaky defense. Villarreal have won the majority of recent head-to-heads and are pushing for a Champions League spot, while Alaves are fighting to avoid relegation. Expect Villarreal to control the game, with Alaves likely to sit deep and try to frustrate, but the visitors' attacking quality should eventually tell.
Key Factors
- →Villarreal are 4th, Alaves 16th in La Liga
- →Villarreal average 1.85 goals scored per game, Alaves just 0.88
- →Alaves have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches
- →Villarreal have scored in every one of their last 5 matches
- →H2H: Villarreal have won 5 of last 10, including 3-1 this season
- →Alaves have poor recent form (LDDLL), Villarreal better (LWWLW)
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession, etc.) missing for Villarreal last 5, reducing confidence in detailed attack/defense matchup
- ⚠️Alaves' home form is better than their overall record, but still not strong
- ⚠️Odds for Villarreal are short, limiting value on away win
- ⚠️Low odds on under 2.5 goals, so value is limited despite high probability
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.