Almeria vs Leganes Prediction
Segunda División · Spain
Almeria
Leganes
📍 UD Almería Stadium, Almería
🗓️ Sunday, 5 Apr 2026 at 16:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 64.0%
Draw: 24.0%
Away: 12.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
64.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — no@ 2.1
EV: 16.4%
Almeria have conceded in only 1 of their last 2 home games, Leganes have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and average just 1.13 goals per game this season. The model probability for 'no' is notably higher than the implied odds.
1x2 — home@ 1.28
Almeria are in strong home form (11W/2D/3L), have the league's highest attack, and face a Leganes side with only 4 away wins and poor recent scoring. Odds are short, so value is limited.
correct_score — 2-0
Most likely correct score based on Almeria's attacking output and Leganes' limited away threat.
Match Analysis
Almeria, sitting 2nd and boasting the division's most prolific attack, host a Leganes side struggling for consistency and goals. Almeria's recent home form is excellent, with 5 goals scored in their last match and an average of 2.4 goals per game over the last 5. Leganes have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and have a modest away record. The home side's attacking firepower and Leganes' lack of threat point towards a comfortable Almeria win, likely with a clean sheet.
Key Factors
- →Almeria's home record: 11 wins in 16, 41 goals scored.
- →Leganes away: only 4 wins in 17, just 18 goals scored.
- →Almeria's last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 12 goals scored.
- →Leganes' last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, 7 goals scored, 3 games failed to score.
- →H2H: Almeria won 3-0 away in the reverse fixture.
- →Almeria's season over 2.5 goals: 71.88%, Leganes only 40.63%.
- →No key injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing stats for Leganes' recent matches (shots, possession, etc.) reduce confidence in defensive/attacking estimates.
- ⚠️Segunda División can be unpredictable, and Leganes have drawn 7 away games.
- ⚠️Almeria's defense has not been watertight (21.88% clean sheet rate), though recent form is strong.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.