Auxerre vs Nantes Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
Nantes
📍 Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
🗓️ Saturday, 11 Apr 2026 at 17:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 41.0%
Draw: 37.0%
Away: 22.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
79.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — no@ 1.17
EV: 7.9%
Both teams have struggled for goals (Auxerre 0.82, Nantes 0.89 per game), and both have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5. Only 1 of Nantes' last 5 and 2 of Auxerre's last 5 saw BTTS. Model probability exceeds market implied probability.
1x2 — draw@ 3.15
EV: 16.6%
Both teams are in poor form, low scoring, and desperate for points. Auxerre draw rate at home and Nantes away are both high. Model probability (0.37) gives positive EV at these odds.
Match Analysis
This is a high-stakes relegation battle between Auxerre and Nantes, both struggling for form and goals. Auxerre have a slight edge at home, with a marginally better recent record and defensive improvement, but both sides have lacked attacking spark. Recent matches and H2H history suggest a tight, low-scoring affair, with a draw or narrow home win most likely. Expect a cautious first half and few clear chances.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game this season.
- →Auxerre have 2 clean sheets and 2 failed to score in last 5; Nantes 2 clean sheets, 3 failed to score.
- →Recent H2H meetings are low scoring (last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 2-0).
- →Both teams are in the bottom 3, with high draw rates and defensive setups.
- →No significant injuries reported.
- →Bookmakers expect a low-scoring game (under 2.5 at 1.10).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, corners, fouls) are missing for recent games, lowering confidence in set piece and discipline predictions.
- ⚠️Both teams are unpredictable in relegation battles, and late tactical changes are possible.
- ⚠️Low scoring increases variance in correct score and 1x2 markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.