Auxerre vs Rennes Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
Rennes
📍 Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Feb 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 22.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 42.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
81.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.2
EV: 3.2%
Both teams have low recent scoring rates (Auxerre 0.6, Rennes 0.8 goals per last 5), with Auxerre failing to score in 4 of last 5 and Rennes failing to score in 3 of last 5. Both have identical season clean sheet rates (22.7%), but Auxerre's attack is among the weakest in Ligue 1. Under 2.5 goals has value and aligns with recent trends.
1x2 — draw@ 3.3
EV: 8.8%
Auxerre's home games and Rennes' away games both show high draw rates, and H2H history is draw-heavy (4/10). Both teams are defensively cautious recently, and Rennes have drawn 4 of 11 away. Odds offer some value.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between a struggling Auxerre side fighting relegation and a Rennes team with European ambitions but recent inconsistency. Auxerre have shown defensive resilience lately, conceding just 0.6 goals per game in their last 5, but their attack is blunt, with only one goal scored in that span. Rennes ended a four-game losing streak with a strong win over PSG, but their away form remains patchy and their defense has been leaky, especially on the road (23 conceded in 11 away). The H2H record is balanced and draw-heavy, and both teams' recent matches have been low-scoring. Expect a tense, cagey affair with few clear chances.
Key Factors
- →Auxerre have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- →Rennes have conceded 23 goals in 11 away games this season.
- →Both teams have identical season clean sheet rates (22.7%).
- →Head-to-head is even, with 4 draws in the last 10.
- →Auxerre's home record is poor (3W 2D 6L, 10 GF/12 GA).
- →Rennes' away record is inconsistent (3W 4D 4L, 12 GF/23 GA).
- →Recent form: Auxerre WDDLL, Rennes WLLLL.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Lack of detailed player stats for Auxerre's last 5 matches increases uncertainty.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of prediction.
- ⚠️Rennes' recent win over PSG may signal a form uptick not fully captured by averages.
- ⚠️Auxerre's last win was against a bottom side (Metz), which may overstate improvement.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.