Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
Stade Brestois 29
📍 Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Mar 2026 at 18:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 21.0%
Draw: 41.0%
Away: 38.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
82.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1x2 — draw@ 3.15
EV: 29.0%
Both teams have low attacking output and high recent draw rates. Auxerre are struggling to score, while Brest have tightened up defensively. The probability of a draw is higher than the odds imply.
btts — no@ 1.17
EV: -3.0%
Auxerre have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and Brest have 3 clean sheets in their last 5. Both teams' recent matches trend heavily to BTTS 'no'.
Match Analysis
This is a low-scoring clash between an Auxerre side desperate for points at home and a Brest team with a solid recent defensive record. Auxerre's attack is blunt, with just 19 goals in 26 games and only 1 goal scored in their last 3. Brest, while not prolific away, have been difficult to break down recently, conceding just 3 in their last 5. Both teams' recent games have been tight, with under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no' landing frequently. The most likely outcome is a narrow Brest win or a draw, with very few goals expected.
Key Factors
- →Auxerre have scored only 1 goal in their last 3 matches and failed to score in 3 of their last 5.
- →Brest have 3 clean sheets in their last 5 and have conceded just 0.6 goals per game in that span.
- →Both teams average under 1.4 goals conceded per game across the season.
- →Auxerre's home record is poor (3W 3D 7L, 10:15 GF:GA).
- →Brest's away record is weak (3W 3D 7L, 14:23 GF:GA), but recent form is improved.
- →H2H history is slightly in Brest's favor (5 wins in last 10), with several low-scoring games.
- →Both teams' over 2.5 goal percentages are below 50%.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, etc) are missing for several recent games, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Auxerre's attack is inconsistent and could improve unexpectedly due to relegation pressure.
- ⚠️Brest's away form is historically poor, though recent defensive improvement noted.
- ⚠️Market odds for under 2.5 and BTTS 'no' are very short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.