Benfica
Real Madrid
, Lisbon
Tuesday, 17 Feb 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 22.0%
Draw: 26.0%
Away: 52.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
64.0% confidence
💰Recommended Bets
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.1
Expected Value: 18.0%
Model probability (38%) is higher than the odds-implied probability (32%) for over 2.5 goals. Both teams have shown attacking potential in recent matches, and the last H2H was high-scoring, suggesting some value.
Match Analysis
Real Madrid travel to Lisbon aiming to overturn their recent defeat to Benfica. While Benfica are buoyed by a strong home win in the last H2H, their overall Champions League form is inconsistent, especially against higher-ranked sides. Real Madrid's attack has been prolific, averaging over 2.5 goals per game in the competition, and their recent domestic and European form is strong. Benfica's defense has improved, but Madrid's firepower and need for a result should see them edge a competitive, tactical encounter. Expect a measured first half, with Madrid likely to assert themselves as the match progresses.
Key Factors
- ▪Real Madrid average 2.63 goals scored per UCL game (season), with 75% of matches over 2.5 goals.
- ▪Benfica's home UCL record is mixed (2W, 2L), conceding 1.5 goals per home game.
- ▪Recent H2H (Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid) was open and high-scoring.
- ▪Real Madrid have not failed to score in their last 5 matches; Benfica failed to score twice.
- ▪No major injuries reported for either side.
- ▪Benfica's clean sheet rate is higher, but Real Madrid's attack is significantly stronger.
- ▪Bookmaker odds heavily favor Real Madrid, but the model sees some value in goals markets.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️ Only one recent H2H; small sample size for direct matchup trends.
- ⚠️ Benfica's defensive stats are skewed by domestic matches; UCL record less impressive.
- ⚠️ Some missing granular data (shots, xG) for Benfica's last 5 matches.
- ⚠️ Madrid's away defense has allowed 2 goals per UCL away game; possible volatility.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.