Bologna vs Lazio Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Bologna
Lazio
📍 Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 36.0%
Draw: 40.0%
Away: 24.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — draw@ 3.05
EV: 27.0%
Both teams have similar league positions, recent H2H meetings are draw-heavy, and both sides have strong defensive records with low-scoring trends. The model probability for a draw (0.40) is higher than the implied probability from odds (0.33), offering a positive value edge.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.1
Both teams have strong under 2.5 goal trends (Bologna 48%, Lazio 28%), recent matches and H2H are low-scoring, and model probability for under 2.5 is very high (0.81).
btts — no@ 1.15
Model probability for BTTS 'no' is 0.59, both teams have kept multiple clean sheets recently, and H2H suggests low BTTS frequency.
Match Analysis
This is a tightly poised mid-table Serie A clash between Bologna and Lazio, both separated by just two points and sitting 8th and 9th in the standings. Both sides are in decent form, with Bologna slightly stronger recently. The match is likely to be a tactical, low-scoring affair, as both teams have solid defensive records and have struggled to score freely. Recent head-to-head meetings have been cagey, with three of the last four ending in draws and most featuring under 2.5 goals. Expect a disciplined, hard-fought game, with a draw the most probable outcome.
Key Factors
- →Both teams have strong defensive records: Bologna (1.17 conceded/game), Lazio (0.97 conceded/game)
- →Recent form: Bologna (WDLWW), Lazio (WWDLD)
- →Low-scoring trends: Bologna over 2.5 goals in 48% of games, Lazio only 28%
- →H2H: 4 of last 6 meetings drawn or decided by 1 goal, 5 of last 6 under 2.5 goals
- →Bologna stronger at home recently, but only 5 wins in 14 home games
- →Lazio struggle away (3 wins in 14), low away goals (8 in 14)
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats for shots and possession missing for Lazio, increasing uncertainty in attack/defence assessment
- ⚠️Both teams' attacking output is inconsistent; a single early goal could open the game up unexpectedly
- ⚠️Market odds are quite defensive (low odds on under 2.5 and BTTS no), reducing value edges in main markets
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.