Bologna vs Udinese Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Bologna
Udinese
📍 Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
🗓️ Monday, 23 Feb 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 33.0%
Draw: 37.0%
Away: 30.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
1x2 — draw@ 3.3
EV: 7.1%
Both teams have similar season records, recent form is mixed, and H2H history is draw-heavy (6 of last 10). Model probability for draw (0.37) exceeds market implied (0.303), offering value.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table clash between Bologna and Udinese, with both sides showing inconsistent recent form. Bologna have struggled at home (4W 2D 6L), while Udinese are slightly better away (5W 1D 6L), but both teams average just over a goal per game and concede at similar rates. Recent H2H matches have been tight, with a high draw rate and low scoring. Defensive discipline and lack of attacking cutting edge suggest a low-scoring, cagey affair, with a draw the most likely outcome.
Key Factors
- →6 of last 10 H2H meetings ended in draws
- →Both teams average under 1.4 goals scored per game
- →Bologna home record (4W 2D 6L) is poor; Udinese away (5W 1D 6L) is slightly better
- →Recent form: Bologna WLLWL, Udinese LLWWL
- →Both teams have a low clean sheet percentage (Bologna 24%, Udinese 20%)
- →Season over 2.5 goals % is moderate (both 52%), but recent games trend under
- →No significant injuries reported
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing data for shots/corners/cards in Udinese's recent matches reduces model confidence in set piece and discipline markets
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent, increasing variance
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest a stronger home edge than model, so market may be pricing in factors not present in data
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.