Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
Segunda División · Spain
Burgos
AD Ceuta FC
📍 Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos
🗓️ Wednesday, 1 Apr 2026 at 18:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 56.0%
Draw: 28.0%
Away: 16.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
77.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — home@ 1.4
EV: 4.8%
Burgos are in strong home form (WDWWL), have 4 clean sheets in last 5, and face a Ceuta side with the league's worst away defence (33 conceded in 16). The model makes Burgos clear favorites and the odds are just on the edge of value.
btts — no@ 1.17
EV: -8.5%
Burgos have not conceded in their last 4 matches, Ceuta have failed to score in 1/5 and struggle away. The model gives a high probability for 'no', but the odds are a bit short for strong value.
under 2.5 goals — under@ 1.65
EV: 1.3%
Burgos home games are low-scoring (under 2.5 in 64.5% at home), Ceuta's away attack is inconsistent, and both teams' recent matches trend under. Small value at current odds.
Match Analysis
Burgos come into this fixture in strong defensive form, with four clean sheets in their last five matches, and have been particularly solid at home. AD Ceuta FC, meanwhile, have the league's worst away defensive record, conceding over two goals per away game, and have lost three in a row. While Ceuta do have some attacking threat, especially at home, their away form is poor and they struggle to break down organized sides. Expect Burgos to control the match, keep things tight at the back, and take advantage of Ceuta's defensive weaknesses, likely resulting in a low-scoring home win.
Key Factors
- →Burgos: 4 clean sheets in last 5, only 0.2 goals conceded per game recently
- →Ceuta: 3 straight losses, 2.6 goals conceded per game in last 5, worst away defence in league
- →Burgos home record: 8W 5D 3L, only 10 goals conceded in 16 home matches
- →Ceuta away record: 3W 4D 9L, 33 goals conceded in 16 away matches
- →Only one H2H, Ceuta won at home 1-0, but away is a different story
- →Burgos games trend under 2.5, Ceuta away games trend over, but recent Ceuta attack is inconsistent
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H, so limited direct matchup data
- ⚠️Ceuta have shown some attacking ability, so a goal for them is possible if Burgos slip
- ⚠️Burgos' low shots/corners averages suggest they sometimes struggle to create chances, so a low-scoring draw is not impossible
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for both teams in recent games, slightly reducing confidence in attack/defence metrics
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.