Burgos vs Cordoba Prediction
Segunda División · Spain
Burgos
Cordoba
📍 Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 13:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 48.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 20.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
77.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — home@ 1.6
EV: -0.8%
Burgos are in strong form (DWWLD), have a solid home record (7W-5D-3L), and face a Cordoba side on a five-match losing streak with a leaky defense. However, the odds are short and value is marginal.
ou_2_5 — under@ 1.57
EV: -1.9%
Both teams trend under 2.5 goals in recent games, especially Burgos (only 33% over 2.5 this season). Cordoba's attack has cooled, and Burgos' defense is strong at home.
btts — no@ 1.13
EV: -11.5%
Burgos have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 and failed to score in 2, while Cordoba have failed to score in only 1 of 5 but face a much stronger defense here. Odds are too short for significant value.
Match Analysis
Burgos host Cordoba in a clash between a playoff contender in solid form and a visiting side in crisis. Burgos' defense has been outstanding recently, conceding just 0.4 goals per game in their last five, while Cordoba have lost five straight, conceding 3 per game in that stretch. Despite Cordoba's higher season scoring rate, their defensive frailty and poor away form make Burgos favorites in a likely low-scoring contest. Expect a tight first half, with Burgos' organization and home advantage proving decisive.
Key Factors
- →Burgos: 3 clean sheets in last 5, only 0.8 goals scored but just 0.4 conceded per game recently
- →Cordoba: 5 straight losses, conceding 3 per game in last 5, no clean sheets in that span
- →Burgos home record: 7W-5D-3L, only 10 conceded in 15 home games
- →Cordoba away: 5W-5D-5L, 22 scored and 22 conceded in 15 away games
- →H2H: Each side has one win, one draw in last 3, but Burgos won last home meeting 3-2
- →Low over 2.5 rate for Burgos (33%), Cordoba much higher (60%) but recent form suggests regression
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited shot and xG data for recent matches reduces precision of attacking/defensive estimates
- ⚠️Cordoba's attack, while poor recently, has shown higher potential over the season
- ⚠️Market odds on BTTS and under 2.5 are short, offering little value
- ⚠️Model confidence slightly reduced due to missing advanced stats (xG, full shot maps)
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.