Cagliari vs Napoli Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Cagliari
Napoli
📍 Unipol Domus, Cagliari
🗓️ Friday, 20 Mar 2026 at 17:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 9.0%
Draw: 22.0%
Away: 69.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
71.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 6
EV: 182.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.47) is much higher than the implied probability from the odds (0.167), indicating strong value despite both teams having moderate recent goal averages. Napoli's attack is in good form and Cagliari's defense has struggled.
1x2 — away@ 1.2
EV: 8.0%
Napoli are in excellent form (WWW), have a strong away record, and have dominated this H2H. Cagliari are struggling (LDDLL) and rarely score against Napoli.
Match Analysis
Napoli arrive in Sardinia in top form, seeking to maintain pressure at the top of Serie A. Cagliari, languishing near the relegation zone, have struggled badly in recent weeks, scoring just twice in their last five games and failing to win. Napoli's attack has been consistent, averaging 1.8 goals per game in their last five, and their away record is among the league's best. Historically, Napoli have dominated this fixture, and the data points to another solid away performance.
Key Factors
- →Napoli's last 5 form: WWWLD, 3 wins in a row, 1.8 goals/game.
- →Cagliari's last 5 form: LDDLL, only 0.4 goals/game, 3 games failed to score.
- →Napoli have won 6 of the last 10 H2H, Cagliari 0.
- →Napoli away: 8W, 1D, 6L, 20:17 GF:GA.
- →Cagliari home: 4W, 4D, 6L, 16:17 GF:GA.
- →No injuries reported for either side.
- →Cagliari's attack (shots, xG proxies) is among the league's weakest recently.
- →Napoli have scored in every last 5 match; Cagliari have failed to score in 3 of 5.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Cagliari are at home and fighting relegation, which may increase motivation.
- ⚠️Napoli's defense has not kept a clean sheet in the last 5 games.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession) missing for Cagliari in recent games, reducing model confidence slightly.
- ⚠️Low odds on Napoli and BTTS markets reduce value for some selections.
- ⚠️Serie A can be unpredictable in late season with relegation-threatened teams.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.