Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
📍 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior
🗓️ Saturday, 18 Apr 2026 at 17:00
Original Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 18.0%
Draw: 39.0%
Away: 43.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
82.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
correct_score — 0-1
Santa Clara have a better defensive record, more clean sheets, and have won three of the last four H2H meetings. Casa Pia's attack is very poor (0.6 goals/game last 5), while Santa Clara rarely score more than once away. Low-scoring, narrow away win is the likeliest scenario.
1x2 — Draw@ 3.15
EV: -7.0%
Both teams struggle in attack and have high draw rates (Casa Pia 10 draws in 28, Santa Clara 7 in 29). The probability of a draw is relatively high in this match-up.
ou_2_5 — Under@ 1.09
EV: -5.0%
Both teams have low over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 50%, Santa Clara 34.5%), and recent form points to low-scoring games. Both average under 1 goal scored per game over the season.
Match Analysis
This is a relegation six-pointer between two of the league's lowest scorers. Casa Pia are winless in their last five and have the league's worst defence, but Santa Clara's away attack is also weak. Santa Clara have shown better form recently and have dominated recent H2H meetings, including a 1-0 win earlier this season. Expect a tight, low-scoring game where a single goal could decide it.
Key Factors
- →Casa Pia: 0.6 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game in last 5; just 1 clean sheet.
- →Santa Clara: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game in last 5; 3 clean sheets.
- →Casa Pia home: 2 wins in 13, 17 scored, 23 conceded.
- →Santa Clara away: 2 wins in 14, 13 scored, 21 conceded.
- →Head-to-head: Santa Clara have won 3 of last 4, all with clean sheets.
- →Both teams have high draw rates and low attacking output.
- →No significant injuries reported.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Low attacking quality increases draw and low-goal variance.
- ⚠️Casa Pia's home record is poor, but Santa Clara's away record is not strong either.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds heavily favor Santa Clara, but model suggests a closer contest.
- ⚠️No lineup or late injury news available; check closer to kickoff.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.