Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Celta Vigo
Alaves
📍 Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 15:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 57.0%
Draw: 30.0%
Away: 13.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
71.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 5.1
EV: 13.6%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (36%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (19.6%), creating a positive value edge. Both teams have a moderate over 2.5 rate and Celta Vigo's attack is above average, while Alaves' defense is weak away. However, both teams' recent matches trend under, so stake is low.
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo come into this match as clear favorites, sitting 6th in La Liga with a solid recent form and a strong home record against Alaves. Alaves, struggling in 17th and with a poor away record, have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and rarely threaten on the road. Celta's attack has been consistent, and their defense generally holds up against lower-table sides. Expect a controlled match from the hosts, with a good chance of a clean sheet and a moderate probability of a multi-goal win. The historical H2H is heavily in Celta's favor, especially at Balaídos.
Key Factors
- →Celta Vigo have lost only 2 of their last 10 home matches vs Alaves (7 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws).
- →Alaves have just 2 away wins all season and concede 1.57 goals per away game.
- →Celta's last 5: DDLWW, averaging 1.2 goals scored, 1.0 conceded.
- →Alaves' last 5: DLLDD, averaging 1.2 goals scored, 1.8 conceded, 0 clean sheets.
- →Celta have failed to score in 0 of last 5, Alaves in 1 of last 5.
- →Both teams to score has landed in 4 of last 5 for both sides.
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, corners, possession) are missing for Alaves, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Celta's home record is only average (4W, 5D, 5L), so upset/draw risk is not negligible.
- ⚠️Alaves' BTTS and over 2.5 rates are moderate, but their attack is inconsistent away.
- ⚠️Odds on most markets are very short, limiting value except for over 2.5.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.