Celta Vigo vs Mallorca Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Celta Vigo
Mallorca
📍 Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Feb 2026 at 17:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 46.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 18.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
77.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1X2 — draw@ 3.35
EV: 21.0%
Both teams have struggled for wins recently and Celta Vigo's home record is poor (3W 5D 4L). Mallorca are weak away (1W 2D 9L), but Celta's attack is not prolific and their recent form is mixed. High draw frequency in H2H and both teams' records.
under_2.5_goals — under@ 1.11
Both teams average low goals per game, especially Celta at home and Mallorca away. 84% model probability for under 2.5, and only 16% for over. Recent H2H and team trends support a low-scoring match.
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo host Mallorca in a clash between a mid-table side and a relegation-threatened visitor. Celta's form has dipped (no wins in 5), but Mallorca are even worse away from home, with just one win and a leaky defence. Both sides struggle for goals and clean sheets, but Celta's defence is marginally stronger. Expect a tense, low-scoring match, with Celta slightly favoured but a draw very possible.
Key Factors
- →Celta Vigo have failed to win in their last 5 matches (form: DLDDL), but have only lost once at home in their last 5.
- →Mallorca have lost 9 of 12 away matches this season and conceded 23 away goals.
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per game (Celta 1.33, Mallorca 1.21).
- →Celta's home matches see 2.67 goals on average; Mallorca's away matches 2.75.
- →Head-to-head: 3 of last 5 meetings produced under 2.5 goals.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Mallorca's last 5 match stats are incomplete (shots, possession, etc.), reducing confidence in attack/defence comparison.
- ⚠️Celta Vigo's home attack is inconsistent; Mallorca's away defence is poor, but the model leans under due to both teams' low scoring rates.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest Celta are much stronger favourites than the model, which sees draw as value due to both sides' inconsistency.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.