Club Brugge KV
Atletico Madrid
Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge
Wednesday, 18 Feb 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 19.0%
Draw: 27.0%
Away: 54.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰Recommended Bets
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.35
Expected Value: 16.0%
Both teams have high over 2.5 goal percentages this season (Club Brugge 91.7%, Atletico 87.5%), and Brugge's defense is leaky. Odds on over 2.5 are generous relative to model probability.
1x2 — draw@ 3.65
Expected Value: 0.4%
Draw is slightly undervalued by the market and four of the last H2H meetings ended in a draw or one-goal margin. Both teams are inconsistent away/home.
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid travel to Brugge as favorites, but both sides have shown recent defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent away/home form. Club Brugge have been prolific at home but also concede frequently, while Atletico's away record in Europe is mixed. Expect a tight contest, with Atletico's quality likely to edge it, but goal chances at both ends.
Key Factors
- ▪Club Brugge average 2.8 goals scored in last 5, but also concede 1 per game.
- ▪Atletico Madrid have 3 clean sheets in last 5 but failed to score twice.
- ▪Both teams' season over 2.5 goal percentages are very high.
- ▪Atletico's away defensive record is poor (10 conceded in 4 away UCL games).
- ▪Recent H2H meetings have been low scoring, but Brugge did win at home in 2022.
- ▪No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️ Lack of detailed shots/corners data for Club Brugge's recent games reduces confidence in set piece and attacking threat estimates.
- ⚠️ Both teams have shown high variance in results and goal output.
- ⚠️ Champions League knockout context may make teams more cautious than league averages suggest.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.