Crawley Town vs Gillingham Prediction
League Two · England
Crawley Town
Gillingham
📍 The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley
🗓️ Saturday, 28 Mar 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 34.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 30.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
53.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3.65
EV: 72.0%
Model probability for BTTS (yes) is 47%, while odds imply just 27%. Both teams have recent BTTS games, and defensive frailties are evident, especially for Gillingham. This is a strong value edge.
1x2 — draw@ 3.45
EV: 24.0%
Draw probability is modelled at 36% vs implied 29%. Both teams are out of form, with Crawley drawing 4 of their last 5 and Gillingham winless in 5. H2H also shows several draws.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two out-of-form sides, with Crawley Town desperate for points near the bottom and Gillingham sliding down the table after a poor run. Crawley have drawn four of their last five, often struggling to score but showing some defensive resilience at home. Gillingham have lost four straight, conceding heavily, but also have a better away record than Crawley's home form. Neither side is convincing in attack, and both have defensive issues, so a low-scoring, tense encounter is likely, with a draw the most probable outcome. However, the value on both teams to score is significant given recent defensive records.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average just 0.6 goals scored per game over their last 5 matches.
- →Gillingham have conceded 3 goals per game on average in their last 5.
- →Crawley have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches.
- →Head-to-head shows 3 draws in the last 6 meetings.
- →Neither team has a strong clean sheet record (20-21% for the season).
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
- →Crawley are 21st and fighting relegation, Gillingham are 16th and nearly safe but out of form.
- →Crawley home: 4W 8D 7L; Gillingham away: 5W 5D 8L.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is poor, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (e.g., shots, lineups) for a few recent games.
- ⚠️Low attacking output increases risk of a 0-0 or 1-0/0-1 outcome.
- ⚠️Market odds are relatively close, reflecting uncertainty.
- ⚠️No injuries, but possible late lineup changes could impact predictions.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.