Derby vs Blackburn Prediction
Championship · England
Derby
Blackburn
📍 Pride Park, Derby
🗓️ Saturday, 28 Feb 2026 at 12:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 41.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 23.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
66.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
1x2 — draw@ 3.25
EV: 16.0%
Both teams have shown inconsistency and defensive solidity recently, with low goals and high draw probability. The odds for the draw offer a small positive edge and align with the model's top correct score.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table clash with Derby seeking to stay in the playoff hunt and Blackburn aiming to pull further clear of relegation. Derby's home form has been patchy, while Blackburn's away results are slightly better than their overall record. Both teams have shown defensive improvement lately, and goal averages are low, suggesting a tight, low-scoring contest. The head-to-head history is volatile but recent games have been close. Expect a cautious approach, with few clear chances and a high likelihood of a draw.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game and 1.24 conceded per game.
- →Derby have only 5 home wins in 17, while Blackburn have 6 away wins in 16.
- →Last 5 matches: Derby (LWLWD), Blackburn (WWLWL) – both inconsistent.
- →Recent matches for both sides have seen low BTTS and under 2.5 goal rates.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
- →Head-to-head: 7 of last 10 meetings have had a winner, but recent matches tighter.
- →League positions: Derby 8th, Blackburn 20th – but away form narrows the gap.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing, reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️Low sample size for recent clean sheets and failed-to-score rates.
- ⚠️Head-to-head history is volatile, so outcome variance is higher than average.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds on low goals and BTTS 'no' are very short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.