Derby vs Swansea Prediction
Championship · England
Derby
Swansea
📍 Pride Park, Derby
🗓️ Saturday, 14 Feb 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 32.0%
Draw: 39.0%
Away: 29.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.8
EV: 7.2%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (28%) is slightly higher than the implied probability from odds (20.8%), offering a small value edge in a match where both teams have shown recent attacking intent and defensive lapses.
1x2 — draw@ 3.15
Both teams have similar recent form and defensive stats, and H2H history shows a high draw rate. The model makes draw the most likely outcome.
Match Analysis
Derby and Swansea meet at Pride Park in a mid-table clash with both teams separated by just three points. Derby's home form has been inconsistent (4W, 6D, 6L), while Swansea have struggled away (4W, 2D, 9L), but both sides are coming off positive recent results and have similar goal records. Injuries and suspensions affect both squads, especially in midfield and defense for Derby. Expect a tight, tactical battle likely to be decided by small margins, with a draw the most probable outcome.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per game and have kept 2 clean sheets each in their last 5.
- →Derby have failed to score in none of their last 5, Swansea likewise.
- →Both sides' last 5 matches average under 2 goals conceded per game combined.
- →Season over 2.5 goal % is around 50% for both, but recent defensive improvement noted.
- →Derby missing key midfielder (Travis, red card) and defender (Langas, hamstring).
- →H2H last 10: 3 draws, 4 away wins, 3 home wins; low scoring is common.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, corners) missing for several recent away games for both teams.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; injuries could impact starting XIs more than expected.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest lower scoring than model, increasing risk for goal markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.