Erzgebirge Aue vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction
3. Liga · Germany
Erzgebirge Aue
Alemannia Aachen
📍 Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue
🗓️ Saturday, 7 Mar 2026 at 13:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 25.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 43.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
70.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 3.7
EV: 159.0%
Both teams have high BTTS rates in their last 5 (Aue 4/5, Aachen 5/5), and both defences are conceding at a high rate. The odds of 3.7 are significantly above model probability, creating a strong value edge.
ou_2_5 — over@ 1.65
Both teams' over 2.5 rates are high (Aue 62.96%, Aachen 73.08%). Recent matches for both sides are goal-heavy, and defensive records are poor.
double_chance — X2
Aachen are in better form, have a much stronger away record, and Aue are on a losing streak. Model probability for X2 is 0.75.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two teams with leaky defences and a strong recent tendency for high-scoring, both teams to score matches. Erzgebirge Aue are struggling badly, winless in five and on a three-game losing streak, while Alemannia Aachen have found some away form and are scoring freely but also conceding regularly. Both teams' season and recent stats point to goals and BTTS, with Aachen's away attack likely to trouble Aue's defence. The historical H2H slightly favours Aue, but current form and away strength tip the edge to Aachen.
Key Factors
- →Aue have lost their last 3 and are winless in 5 (form: LLLDD)
- →Aachen averaging 2.4 goals scored per game in last 5, no failed to score
- →Both teams have hit BTTS in 4 or 5 of last 5 matches
- →Aachen away record: 6W 4D 4L, 29:23 goals in 14 games
- →Aue home record: 4W 5D 5L, 18:21 goals in 14 games
- →Aue's season clean sheet %: 25.93%, Aachen's: 7.69%
- →Both teams' over 2.5 goal % is high (Aue 62.96%, Aachen 73.08%)
- →No significant injuries reported
Risk Notes
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or corners data for Aue's last 5 matches reduces confidence in set piece and shot-based markets
- ⚠️H2H sample is small and includes older matches; recent form is prioritized
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds for 1x2 market seem inconsistent (home odds lower than away despite away edge in model and standings)
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of analysis
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.