Fiorentina vs Inter Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Fiorentina
Inter
📍 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 10.0%
Draw: 19.0%
Away: 71.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
78.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.2
EV: 15.2%
Model probability (36%) is significantly above the implied probability (23.8%) for over 2.5 goals. While both teams' recent games trend under, Inter's away attack and Fiorentina's defensive frailty create some value at this price.
1x2 — away@ 1.25
Inter are league leaders with a dominant away record (11W/0D/3L), facing a Fiorentina side with only 3 home wins and a negative goal difference. H2H is also strongly in Inter's favor.
btts — no@ 1.2
EV: -5.3%
Model probability for BTTS 'no' is high (78%), supported by Inter's strong defensive record (0.79 conceded/game, 52% clean sheets) and Fiorentina's inconsistent attack.
Match Analysis
Inter travel to Florence as clear favorites, sitting top of Serie A with the league's best away record and a strong defensive foundation. Fiorentina, struggling near the relegation zone, have been inconsistent at home and have scored just 18 goals in 14 home matches. Inter's recent form is not as explosive as earlier in the season but remains solid, and their H2H dominance over Fiorentina is notable. Expect Inter to control the match, limit Fiorentina's chances, and likely secure a clean sheet victory.
Key Factors
- →Inter have won 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings, including a 3-0 win earlier this season.
- →Fiorentina average just 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game; Inter average 2.24 scored and only 0.79 conceded.
- →Inter's away record: 11 wins in 14, only 10 goals conceded.
- →Fiorentina have only 3 home wins and a negative home goal difference.
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
- →Inter's clean sheet rate (52%) is among the best in Serie A.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Fiorentina's recent form is slightly improved (WWDLW), but mostly against weaker opposition.
- ⚠️Some recent Inter matches have been low scoring; their attack has cooled slightly.
- ⚠️Fiorentina have shown occasional ability to frustrate top teams at home (draws with Juventus, AC Milan).
- ⚠️Some stats (shots, corners, fouls) are missing for several matches, reducing precision of set piece and discipline predictions.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.