Fiorentina vs Parma Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Fiorentina
Parma
📍 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
🗓️ Sunday, 8 Mar 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 32.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 30.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1x2 — draw@ 3.6
EV: 37.0%
Both teams have a high draw rate historically and in the H2H (7 of last 10 meetings drawn). Recent form is similar, and neither side is prolific in attack. The model probability for a draw (0.38) is notably higher than the implied probability (0.28), providing strong value.
btts — yes@ 4.5
EV: 124.0%
Model probability for BTTS yes (0.44) is much higher than the implied probability (0.22). Both sides have shown some attacking ability recently, and 3 of Parma's last 5 and 2 of Fiorentina's last 5 have seen BTTS.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two mid-to-lower table sides with similar defensive records and limited attacking output. Fiorentina's home form is poor, while Parma are solid on the road and in better recent form. The H2H record is heavily tilted toward draws, and both teams are unlikely to take major risks. Expect a tight, low-scoring encounter where a draw is the most probable outcome.
Key Factors
- →7 of last 10 H2H meetings have been draws.
- →Fiorentina have only 3 home wins in 13, Parma have 5 away wins in 13.
- →Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game and concede at similar rates.
- →Parma have a higher clean sheet rate but also a low goals for average.
- →Recent form is similar: Fiorentina (LWWWD), Parma (DWWWL).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent match stats (shots, possession, etc) are incomplete for both teams.
- ⚠️Lineups for this fixture are not available yet.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but late changes could impact predictions.
- ⚠️Low sample size for some Parma away stats (corners, cards, shots).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.