Fiorentina vs Pisa Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Fiorentina
Pisa
📍 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
🗓️ Monday, 23 Feb 2026 at 17:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 49.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 15.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
52.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 4.33
EV: 107.0%
Both teams have shown a high BTTS rate in recent matches (Fiorentina 5/5, Pisa 4/5), and both have leaky defences. The odds offered are much higher than model probability, creating strong value.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.55
EV: 46.0%
Fiorentina's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 64% this season, and Pisa's defence is weak. The price is generous relative to model probability.
1x2 — draw@ 3.75
EV: 35.0%
Both teams have a high draw rate (Fiorentina 9/25, Pisa 12/25), and Pisa have drawn 8/12 away. The draw is more likely than odds suggest.
Match Analysis
This is a relegation six-pointer between Fiorentina and Pisa, both struggling near the bottom of Serie A. Fiorentina have a slight edge at home, but both teams have been inconsistent and prone to defensive lapses. Recent form for both is poor, but Fiorentina's attack has shown more promise, while Pisa continue to draw many away games. Expect a tense, low-quality match with a high chance of both teams scoring and a significant probability of a draw.
Key Factors
- →Fiorentina have scored in all of their last 5 matches and have a 64% over 2.5 goal rate this season.
- →Pisa are winless away but have drawn 8 of 12 away matches.
- →Both teams have poor defensive records (Fiorentina 1.56 conceded per game, Pisa 1.68).
- →BTTS has landed in 5/5 Fiorentina and 4/5 Pisa recent matches.
- →Neither side has significant injuries.
- →First H2H this season ended 0-0, but both teams have become more open since.
- →Fiorentina's home record is weak (2-4-6), but Pisa's away record is even worse (0-8-4).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited recent match stat data for Pisa (missing shots, possession for last 5).
- ⚠️Both teams are unpredictable and have high draw rates, increasing variance.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest low scoring, but recent BTTS/over trends are strong.
- ⚠️One prior H2H only, which was a 0-0 draw.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.