Genoa vs AS Roma Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Genoa
AS Roma
📍 Luigi Ferraris, Genova
🗓️ Sunday, 8 Mar 2026 at 17:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 13.0%
Draw: 25.0%
Away: 62.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
78.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 5.8
EV: 7.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.25) is higher than the implied probability from odds (0.17), offering positive value despite the low scoring tendency in both teams' recent matches. Small stake recommended due to underdog nature.
btts — yes@ 5.25
EV: 3.0%
While both teams have low BTTS rates, the odds for 'yes' are slightly higher than model probability, giving a marginal value edge for a speculative small stake.
Match Analysis
AS Roma travel to Genoa as strong favorites, with a clear gap in league position, season record, and defensive solidity. Roma's away form is solid, and they have a strong historical record against Genoa. Genoa's recent form is poor, especially in attack, and their home record is below average. Expect Roma to control the match, likely keeping a clean sheet, but with a slim chance of a higher-scoring game if Genoa chase the match.
Key Factors
- →Roma have conceded just 10 goals in 13 away games (0.77 per game).
- →Genoa average only 1.19 goals per game this season and have failed to score in 2 of their last 5.
- →Roma have a 44% clean sheet rate this season.
- →Head-to-head: Roma have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, including a 3-1 win this season.
- →Genoa's home record: 4W 4D 6L, with a negative goal difference.
- →Recent form: Genoa have lost 3 of their last 5, Roma are unbeaten in 4 of 5.
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favor Roma, but value on high-variance goal markets.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing for both teams.
- ⚠️Lineups are unknown at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Roma's attack has been efficient but not prolific away from home.
- ⚠️Genoa occasionally produce surprise results at home.
- ⚠️Low confidence in high-goal or BTTS markets due to both teams' season trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.