Genoa vs Torino Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Genoa
Torino
📍 Luigi Ferraris, Genova
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Feb 2026 at 11:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 34.0%
Draw: 39.0%
Away: 27.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
1x2 — draw@ 3
EV: 17.0%
Both teams are in poor form, have similar defensive frailties, and recent H2H meetings are low-scoring and draw-prone. The model's draw probability (39%) is higher than the implied odds (33%).
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two struggling sides in the lower half of Serie A. Genoa and Torino have both shown inconsistency, with Genoa slightly better at home but still vulnerable defensively. Torino's away record is poor, and their attack has been blunt recently. Both teams average low shots and goals, and their last five matches suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. Head-to-head history is dominated by draws and under 2.5 goal outcomes. Expect a cautious, physical match with few clear-cut chances.
Key Factors
- →Both teams are winless in their last two matches and have negative goal differences.
- →Genoa's home record is weak (3W 4D 6L), and Torino's away record is similar (3W 4D 5L).
- →Recent form: Genoa (DLLWD), Torino (LDLWL).
- →Both teams average fewer than 1.2 goals scored per game and concede over 1.4.
- →Head-to-head: 4 of last 5 meetings ended in a draw or a 1-goal margin.
- →High under 2.5 goal probability (model: 79%).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats are missing (shots, lineups), lowering model confidence.
- ⚠️Torino's recent 0-6 loss at Como and variable performances introduce volatility.
- ⚠️Low-scoring matches can be decided by set pieces or defensive errors.
- ⚠️Market odds on under 2.5 and BTTS 'no' are too short for value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.