GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes Prediction
Primeira Liga · Portugal
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
📍 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
🗓️ Saturday, 18 Apr 2026 at 19:30
Original Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 43.0%
Draw: 30.0%
Away: 27.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
over_under_2_5 — under@ 3.1
EV: 12.0%
Model gives 44% chance for under 2.5 goals, while odds imply only 32%. Both teams have under 50% over 2.5 on the season, and recent H2H includes low-scoring games.
1x2 — home@ 1.54
EV: -7.0%
GIL Vicente have a strong home record (8W/3D/3L), Guimaraes are poor away (3W/2D/9L), and home side is higher in the table. However, odds are a bit short for big value.
btts — yes@ 1.78
EV: -2.0%
Model and market are close, but both teams have defensive vulnerabilities (last 5: 1.4/1.6 conceded per game). 3/5 GIL Vicente and 2/5 Guimaraes BTTS recently.
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Guimaraes in a mid-table clash where the home side's strong home form contrasts with the visitors' struggles on the road. Both teams have shown some attacking promise but also defensive frailties, suggesting an open game with a moderate goal expectation. Recent H2H meetings have been tight, but GIL Vicente's home advantage and Guimaraes's away record tip the balance slightly in the hosts' favour.
Key Factors
- →GIL Vicente: 8W/3D/3L at home, 1.79 goals scored/game at home, 0.86 conceded.
- →Guimaraes: 3W/2D/9L away, only 0.79 goals scored/game away, 1.79 conceded.
- →Last 5 form: GIL Vicente (W-L-D-D-L), Guimaraes (D-W-L-L-L).
- →Both teams average ~1.5 goals scored per game, but conceding over 1.2.
- →H2H: 6/10 last meetings under 2.5 goals; last meeting was 0-0.
- →No significant injuries reported.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing detailed stats for Guimaraes's recent matches (shots, possession, etc.).
- ⚠️Lineups for this fixture not yet available—late injuries or rotations possible.
- ⚠️Market odds are fairly efficient; value is modest.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.