Grazer AK vs Ried Prediction
Bundesliga · Austria
Grazer AK
Ried
📍 Merkur-Arena, Graz
🗓️ Sunday, 1 Mar 2026 at 16:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 30.0%
Draw: 42.0%
Away: 28.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
62.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 4.8
EV: 38.0%
Model probability for BTTS 'yes' is 38%, while odds imply only 21%. Both teams average around 1.5 goals scored/conceded in last 5, and 3 of last 5 for both sides saw BTTS. Value edge is significant despite the market's heavy lean to 'no'.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 5.8
EV: 27.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals is 27% vs implied 17%. Both teams have over 2.5 goal rates near or above 45% for the season. Odds are generous for a match with some attacking volatility.
1x2 — draw@ 3.2
EV: 42.0%
Both teams have high draw rates (Grazer AK 8/20, Ried 4/20), recent H2H was 0-0, and both sides have limited attacking edge. Model sees draw as most likely outcome.
Match Analysis
Grazer AK and Ried meet in Graz with both sides struggling for consistent wins. Grazer AK are winless in their last three league games and have just two home wins all season, while Ried's away record is patchy but slightly better, with four wins from ten. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities but have also struggled to score consistently, leading to a high probability of a low-scoring, cagey affair. The H2H history is dominated by Grazer AK, but the most recent meeting ended goalless, and both teams' recent form points to another tight contest. The model expects a draw, with 1-1 the most likely scoreline.
Key Factors
- →Grazer AK have only 2 home wins from 10, with 5 draws.
- →Ried have 4 away wins but also 5 losses; both teams' goal differences are negative.
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals per game in recent matches.
- →Recent H2H: last match 0-0, overall low-scoring trend.
- →Grazer AK have a very low clean sheet rate (10%), Ried slightly better (25%).
- →No significant injuries for either side.
- →Both teams' last 5 matches saw 3 BTTS each, but overall attacking output is modest.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited attacking data available for several recent matches (missing shots, possession, etc).
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may skew form stats.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest extremely low goal expectation, which may be overestimated by the model.
- ⚠️H2H sample size is small and includes matches from lower division.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.