Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
📍 Euroborg, Groningen
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 15:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 28.0%
Draw: 30.0%
Away: 42.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.35
EV: 61.0%
Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (Groningen 51.85%, AZ 66.67%), and recent matches show attacking intent. The odds offered are generous compared to the model probability.
btts — yes@ 3.3
EV: 66.0%
Groningen have BTTS in all last 5, and both teams' defenses are leaky. Model probability is much higher than odds-implied probability.
1x2 — away@ 1.85
EV: -2.0%
AZ Alkmaar are stronger in form, H2H, and league position, but the odds are about fair value, so only a small stake is justified.
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar travel to Groningen in a clash where both sides have shown attacking promise but defensive frailties. Groningen have struggled for consistency, with just one win in their last five, but remain dangerous at home. AZ come in with better form and a strong away record, while historical H2H shows AZ dominance. Expect a competitive match with goals likely at both ends, but AZ’s superior attack and recent momentum give them the edge.
Key Factors
- →AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of the last 10 H2H meetings, including a 4-1 win earlier this season.
- →Groningen have scored and conceded in all of their last 5 matches (BTTS 5/5).
- →AZ have a higher season over 2.5 rate (66.67%) than Groningen (51.85%).
- →AZ’s away record (6W, 1D, 7L) is better than Groningen’s home record (5W, 3D, 5L).
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
- →AZ’s attack averages 1.74 goals per game, Groningen 1.37.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession) for recent games reduce confidence in precise attacking/defensive projections.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds have both teams as joint favorites, suggesting market uncertainty.
- ⚠️Lineups are not yet announced, so late injuries or rotations could affect outcomes.
- ⚠️AZ are juggling European and domestic commitments, which could impact squad rotation/fatigue.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.