Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
📍 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Feb 2026 at 13:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 41.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 27.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 3.55
EV: 127.0%
Both teams have high BTTS rates in their last 5 and season (Heerenveen 3/5, PEC Zwolle 5/5, both over 68% for o2.5 season). Both defences are leaky (Heerenveen 2.6 conceded last 5, PEC Zwolle 1.4), and neither keeps clean sheets. Value is strong with model probability far above market implied.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 2.88
EV: 67.0%
Both sides are frequently involved in high-scoring games (season o2.5%: 68.18% for both). Recent form and H2H also support goals, with several 2-1, 2-2, 4-1, and 5-2 scorelines.
1x2 — draw@ 4.4
EV: 40.0%
H2H history shows 4 draws in last 10, and both teams have a tendency to draw (Heerenveen 7/22, PEC Zwolle 5/22). Value present due to high odds.
Match Analysis
This mid-table Eredivisie clash features two sides with similar records and leaky defences, both eager to push away from the bottom half. Heerenveen's home advantage is tempered by their mediocre home record, while PEC Zwolle have struggled away but have been more potent in attack recently. Both teams' recent matches have featured plenty of goals and BTTS, with neither side keeping a clean sheet in their last five. Expect an open, competitive match with goals at both ends and a high probability of a draw or narrow home win.
Key Factors
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 and BTTS rates (68% o2.5, 60%+ BTTS last 5).
- →Heerenveen have not kept a clean sheet in last 5; PEC Zwolle also 0/5 clean sheets.
- →PEC Zwolle average 2 goals scored per game in last 5, Heerenveen only 1 but just scored 3 away.
- →Heerenveen's home record (3W 5D 3L) is only slightly better than PEC Zwolle's away (1W 4D 6L).
- →H2H: 4 draws in last 10, most games competitive, several high-scoring.
- →Both sides are missing some players, but no single key player is out compared to recent lineups.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited shots/possession data for Heerenveen last 5 (only 1 match with full stats).
- ⚠️Some injuries, but most absentees are not core starters based on recent lineups.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest a much stronger home advantage than model; possible market mispricing or missing context.
- ⚠️Form for both teams is inconsistent; both can be unpredictable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.