Heracles vs Excelsior Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Heracles
Excelsior
📍 Asito Stadium, Almelo
🗓️ Friday, 20 Mar 2026 at 19:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 22.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 42.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3.75
EV: 28.0%
Model probability for BTTS is 44%, while the odds imply only 26.7%. Both teams have poor defences and BTTS occurred in 3 of Excelsior's last 5, while Heracles have attacking threat at home.
1x2 — draw@ 3.3
EV: 19.0%
Draw probability (36%) is higher than the implied odds (30.3%). Both teams are out of form and may settle for a point in a relegation battle.
Match Analysis
This is a crucial relegation six-pointer between bottom-placed Heracles and struggling Excelsior. Both sides are in poor form, with Heracles winless in five and Excelsior on a four-game losing streak. Heracles have been leaky at the back all season, conceding 2.5 goals per game, but do show some attacking intent at home. Excelsior are slightly better defensively and have picked up more points on the road, but are also struggling to score. The match is likely to be tense, with both teams desperate not to lose, but Excelsior's marginally better away record and recent H2H edge gives them a slight advantage. Expect a low-scoring, nervy affair, but both teams are capable of finding the net.
Key Factors
- →Heracles: 5 losses in last 7, only 1 goal scored in last 4 matches.
- →Excelsior: 4 straight losses, but better away record than Heracles' home form.
- →Heracles home: 21 scored, 28 conceded in 13 matches.
- →Excelsior away: 13 scored, 25 conceded in 12 matches.
- →Head-to-head: Excelsior have won 6 of last 10 meetings, including last 3 in Almelo.
- →Both teams have low clean sheet rates (Heracles 7.7%, Excelsior 19.2%).
- →Motivation: Both teams fighting relegation, may play cautiously.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Excelsior missing Hartjes (midfield), but overall injuries minimal.
- ⚠️Excelsior's last 5 match stats incomplete (missing shots, possession, etc.), reduces confidence in attack/defence estimates.
- ⚠️Both teams highly unpredictable due to poor form and relegation pressure.
- ⚠️Market liquidity and odds may shift closer to kickoff.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.