Hull City vs Derby Prediction
Championship · England
Hull City
Derby
📍 MKM Stadium, Hull
🗓️ Tuesday, 24 Feb 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 27.0%
Draw: 34.0%
Away: 39.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
double_chance — X2
Derby have a strong away record (8W, 3D, 4L), are in better recent form (WLWDW), and have dominated the H2H (8 wins in last 10). Hull are on a 2-game losing streak and have defensive issues. X2 covers both the away win and draw, which together are 73% by model.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.33
EV: 14.0%
Hull's matches go over 2.5 goals in 64.5% of games this season. Derby are scoring well lately (2.2 avg last 5), and both teams have attacking threats. Odds for over 2.5 are high, so this is a value play.
correct_score — 1-2
This is the model's most likely scoreline, supported by Derby's away form and H2H dominance. Use only for small stakes.
Match Analysis
This is a crucial playoff race clash between two top-six sides. Hull City, despite their strong league position, enter the match on a two-game losing streak and have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.6 goals per game in their last five. Derby, on the other hand, are in better recent form, unbeaten in four of their last five and with an impressive away record. Derby have also dominated the recent head-to-head, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. Expect a tight, competitive match with Derby's counterattacking edge and recent confidence giving them a slight advantage, especially if Hull's defensive lapses continue.
Key Factors
- →Derby have 8 wins from 15 away games (53%), Hull have lost 5 of 16 at home.
- →Recent form: Derby (WLWDW), Hull (LLDWW) with Hull on a 2-game losing streak.
- →H2H: Derby have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including the reverse fixture this season.
- →Hull's matches go over 2.5 goals 64.5% of the time; Derby's at 50%.
- →Derby have scored 2.2 goals per game in their last 5, Hull just 1.0.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, corners) are missing for several recent games, reducing confidence in set piece and tempo analysis.
- ⚠️Odds for over/under and BTTS markets may not reflect true probabilities due to market overround.
- ⚠️Hull's home attack can be inconsistent, and their defensive record is volatile.
- ⚠️Championship matches can be unpredictable due to fixture congestion and rotation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.