Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Le Havre
Auxerre
📍 Stade Océane, Le Havre
🗓️ Sunday, 5 Apr 2026 at 15:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 44.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 20.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
82.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — draw@ 3.1
EV: 4.0%
Both teams have struggled for goals and wins recently, with Le Havre drawing 6 of 14 at home and Auxerre drawing 4 of 13 away. The model sees a slightly higher probability for a draw than the odds imply, offering a small value edge.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.11
EV: -3.0%
Both teams average less than 1 goal per game, and 62.96% (Le Havre) and 59.26% (Auxerre) of their matches finish under 2.5 goals. Recent form and H2H history support a low-scoring match, though odds are short.
btts — no@ 1.18
EV: -3.0%
Only 1 of the last 5 for each team saw BTTS. Both are among the lowest scoring in Ligue 1, and recent H2H also trends to at least one blank.
Match Analysis
This is a classic Ligue 1 relegation battle between two of the league's lowest-scoring teams. Le Havre have the edge at home, where they've been hard to beat, but their attack has been blunt and recent form is poor. Auxerre, also in the drop zone, have been slightly more resilient recently but struggle away and rarely score more than once. Expect a tense, cagey affair with few clear chances and a high likelihood of a draw or narrow home win. Goals should be at a premium.
Key Factors
- →Le Havre: 1 win in last 10, but only 3 home losses all season.
- →Auxerre: Only 1 away win, 8 losses, and 4 draws on the road.
- →Both teams average under 1 goal per game this season.
- →Last 5: Le Havre 0.4 goals scored per game, Auxerre 1.0.
- →Recent H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings under 2.5 goals, Le Havre dominant at home.
- →Both teams with 25.93% clean sheet rate, high failed-to-score rates.
- →No significant injuries reported.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent data for shots, corners, and fouls incomplete for some matches.
- ⚠️Both teams' attacking output is highly variable; a defensive error or set piece could swing the match.
- ⚠️Odds on low-goal markets are very short, limiting value.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to low attacking quality and high draw probability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.