Lecce vs Cremonese Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Lecce
Cremonese
📍 Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Lecce
🗓️ Sunday, 8 Mar 2026 at 11:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 41.0%
Draw: 37.0%
Away: 22.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
82.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — draw@ 2.98
EV: 10.0%
Both teams are in poor form, have similar records, and struggle to score. The draw probability is slightly higher than the implied odds suggest, offering a small value edge.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.08
EV: -5.0%
Extremely low scoring rates for both teams, high failed-to-score counts, and 85%+ probability for under 2.5. However, odds are very short, so value is marginal.
btts — no@ 1.13
EV: -6.5%
Four of Cremonese's last 5 and three of Lecce's last 5 have seen at least one team fail to score. Both have <1 goal per game over the season. Odds are short, so only small stake.
Match Analysis
This is a crucial relegation battle between two of Serie A's lowest-scoring teams. Lecce and Cremonese are level on points, both with negative goal differences and among the worst attacks in the league. Recent form is poor for both sides, with Lecce losing their last two and Cremonese winless in five. Both teams average less than a goal per game and have high rates of failed-to-score matches. Expect a tense, cagey affair with few clear chances, likely decided by a single goal or ending goalless.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average under 1 goal per game this season.
- →Lecce's last 5: 2 wins, 3 losses, but only 5 goals scored.
- →Cremonese's last 5: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, only 1 goal scored.
- →H2H history is fairly even, but recent meetings have been low-scoring.
- →Both teams are level on points, sitting 17th and 18th, so motivation is high but nerves will be too.
- →Very low shots and shots on target averages for both sides.
- →High failed-to-score counts: Lecce (2/5), Cremonese (4/5) last 5.
- →Under 2.5 goals in 66%+ of both teams' matches.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Very low attacking output increases the risk of a 0-0 but also means a single error can decide the match.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games; reliance on derived averages.
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of analysis; late injuries or tactical changes could impact outcome.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are very short for low goals/BTTS markets, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.