Leganes vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
Segunda División · Spain
Leganes
AD Ceuta FC
📍 Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Mar 2026 at 13:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 38.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 26.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 4.5
EV: 107.0%
Model estimates BTTS at 46% (odds imply just 22%). Both teams have 3/5 BTTS recently, Ceuta's away defence is leaky, and Leganes have scored in 3/5. Value is strong even with some risk.
1x2 — draw@ 3.5
EV: 25.0%
Draw probability is 36% (implied 29%). Both teams have inconsistent form, Leganes draw a lot at home, and Ceuta are poor away but not outclassed. Tight, low-scoring game expected.
Match Analysis
Leganes, struggling in 18th and winless in five, host a mid-table but poor-travelling Ceuta. Both teams are coming off two straight losses, but Ceuta's attack has been more productive (1.4 goals/game last 5) while Leganes have been defensively average. Leganes' home record is weak (4W 4D 6L) and Ceuta's away form is worse (3W 4D 8L, 28 conceded). Both sides have a tendency for BTTS and draws recently, and the reverse fixture was a tight 2-1 Leganes win. Expect a cautious, tense match with few clear chances, likely decided by set pieces or defensive errors.
Key Factors
- →Leganes' form is poor (LLDDL), with just 1 win in last 8 league matches.
- →Ceuta have lost two straight but won three prior; away defence is a major weakness (28 conceded in 15).
- →Leganes' home record is weak (4W 4D 6L), Ceuta's away record is poor (3W 4D 8L).
- →Both teams average over 1 goal conceded per match; Ceuta's matches go over 2.5 at a high rate (56.7%).
- →Both teams have 3/5 BTTS recently.
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
- →Only one recent H2H, a close 2-1 Leganes away win.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited H2H data (only one recent meeting).
- ⚠️Recent Leganes matches lack detailed shot/possession stats.
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent and capable of both strong and weak performances.
- ⚠️Leganes' home attack is weak (13 goals in 14 home games).
- ⚠️Ceuta's away defence is poor, but their attack is inconsistent.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.