Lyon vs Monaco Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Lyon
Monaco
📍 Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 28.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 40.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
52.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.8
EV: 16.0%
Model probability (41%) for over 2.5 goals is significantly higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (26%), and Monaco's recent attack is strong (2.4 avg goals last 5), while Lyon's defense has wobbled (1.6 conceded last 5).
1x2 — draw@ 3.45
EV: 10.0%
Both sides have shown resilience and Lyon have drawn 3 straight, while Monaco's away record is mixed. The model sees a 32% draw probability, slightly above the market.
Match Analysis
This is a high-stakes clash between two top-six Ligue 1 sides. Lyon's recent form has dipped (3 straight draws, 2 prior losses), but their home record is excellent (9W, 1D, 2L). Monaco arrive in red-hot form with 4 straight league wins, including an impressive 3-1 away win at PSG. Monaco's attack is firing (2.4 goals avg last 5), while Lyon have struggled to create and finish lately. Head-to-head history is volatile, but Monaco won the reverse fixture 3-1. Expect Monaco to be more dangerous, with Lyon's home edge keeping things close.
Key Factors
- →Monaco's attack is in top form: 2.4 goals/game last 5, failed to score 0 times.
- →Lyon's recent form is poor: DDDLL, only 1 goal/game last 5, 1 clean sheet.
- →Lyon are strong at home (9W in 12), but Monaco have multiple quality away wins.
- →Monaco's defense is not watertight (1.42 conceded/game season), but Lyon's attack is underperforming.
- →H2H is historically high-scoring, but Lyon have edge at home.
- →Monaco have no key injuries; Lyon miss O. Mangala (midfield depth).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats are missing (shots, xG, etc.), lowering confidence in attack/defense projections.
- ⚠️Lyon's home form is strong, but current form is poor—uncertainty if they can rebound.
- ⚠️Monaco's away defense can be leaky; possible volatility in goal count.
- ⚠️No confirmed lineups at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are very close for 1x2, indicating high uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.