Lyon vs Nice Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Lyon
Nice
📍 Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Feb 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 56.0%
Draw: 27.0%
Away: 17.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
62.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.6
EV: 48.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (41%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (28%), and both teams have shown goal potential in recent games, with Nice's away defence vulnerable.
1x2 — home@ 1.28
EV: 4.0%
Lyon are in excellent form (W5), strong at home (8W/10), while Nice have lost 7/10 away and have a poor defensive record on the road.
Match Analysis
Lyon enter this fixture on a five-match winning streak, displaying defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in last 5) and consistent home form. Despite several injuries, their depth and momentum should see them control the game. Nice have improved slightly but remain inconsistent, especially away from home, where they concede heavily. Lyon's attack is likely to break through Nice's fragile defence, but Nice have enough attacking threat to potentially score. Expect a competitive first half, but Lyon's quality and home advantage should prevail.
Key Factors
- →Lyon's current 5-game win streak and 8 wins from 10 at home.
- →Nice have lost 7 of 10 away games, conceding 24 goals (2.4 per game).
- →Lyon average 2.6 goals scored per game in last 5; Nice concede 1.2 per game in last 5.
- →Lyon missing several key players but have coped well recently.
- →Head-to-head is balanced but Lyon have won the last two home meetings convincingly.
- →Nice's season clean sheet rate is just 14.3%.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Lyon have multiple injuries to attacking and defensive regulars, which could impact lineup strength.
- ⚠️Some recent match stats are incomplete (shots, possession), reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️Nice's away form is poor but recent results show some improvement.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds imply Lyon are heavy favourites, limiting value on home win.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; late changes could affect goal and card markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.