Marseille vs Auxerre Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Marseille
Auxerre
📍 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
🗓️ Friday, 13 Mar 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 74.0%
Draw: 19.0%
Away: 7.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
82.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — home@ 1.13
EV: -1.0%
Marseille have a dominant home record (8W, 3D, 1L), strong attack (2.08 goals/game), and face an Auxerre side with the league's second-worst away record and just 0.76 goals scored per game.
btts — no@ 1.18
EV: -1.0%
Auxerre have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, Marseille have 28% season clean sheet rate, and the H2H trend leans to low-scoring Marseille wins.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.85
EV: 46.0%
Model probability (38%) exceeds implied probability (26%), and Marseille have 64% over 2.5 rate this season, though Auxerre's attack is weak.
Match Analysis
Marseille host Auxerre at the Orange Vélodrome as heavy favorites, boasting a strong home record and attacking output. Auxerre, struggling away and with a poor scoring record, will likely focus on containment. Marseille's recent form is solid, and with Auxerre's lack of attacking threat, a home win to nil is probable. The match is expected to be controlled by Marseille, with limited threat from the visitors.
Key Factors
- →Marseille's home record: 8 wins, 1 loss, 32 goals scored in 12 home games.
- →Auxerre's away record: 1 win, 7 losses, 9 goals in 12 away games.
- →Marseille average 2.08 goals scored per game; Auxerre average 0.76.
- →Auxerre have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- →H2H: Marseille have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, including the last away meeting 1-0.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing, limiting granularity of attack/defense assessment.
- ⚠️Auxerre's defensive improvement (2 clean sheets in last 5) could frustrate Marseille if they are not clinical.
- ⚠️Odds for Marseille are very short; value is limited unless combining with other markets.
- ⚠️Auxerre's occasional away draws suggest some risk of a low-scoring stalemate.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.