Metz vs Auxerre Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Metz
Auxerre
📍 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Feb 2026 at 16:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 23.0%
Draw: 41.0%
Away: 36.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
82.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
correct_score — 0-1
Both teams have struggled to score (Metz 0.6, Auxerre 0.0 avg goals in last 5), Auxerre's defence is marginally better, and H2H favours Auxerre. Under 2.5 and BTTS 'No' are both heavily implied by stats.
double_chance — X2@ 1.44
EV: 11.0%
Auxerre have a strong H2H record, Metz are in poor form, and a draw or away win is statistically likely (model probability 0.77, implied 0.69).
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.11
EV: -3.0%
Both teams have low scoring rates and high failed-to-score counts. Last 5 for both: 0.6 and 0.0 avg goals. Under 2.5 has a model probability of 0.87.
Match Analysis
This is a relegation six-pointer between two of Ligue 1's lowest-scoring teams. Metz are winless in their last five and have a leaky defence, but Auxerre's attack has completely dried up (0 goals in last 5). Both teams are missing key players, which further blunts attacking options. Expect a tense, low-quality affair with few chances, likely decided by a single goal or ending goalless.
Key Factors
- →Metz: DLLLL form, 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per last 5, 3 failed to score in last 5.
- →Auxerre: DDLLL form, 0 goals scored in last 5, 2 clean sheets but 3 away draws, 7 away losses.
- →Both teams have significant injuries, especially in midfield and attack.
- →Auxerre have dominated H2H (6 wins in last 9, including 3-1 this season).
- →Both teams average under 1 goal per game this season.
- →Metz home: 2W 3D 5L, 9:15 goals. Auxerre away: 0W 3D 7L, 4:17 goals.
- →High failed-to-score and clean sheet rates; very low BTTS and over 2.5 goal probabilities.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing stats for shots, possession, and lineups in recent games.
- ⚠️Injury lists are long for both teams; actual lineups may further impact attacking/defensive balance.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are very close on 1x2, indicating high market uncertainty.
- ⚠️Low-confidence game due to both teams' poor form and lack of attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.