Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
📍 Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
🗓️ Sunday, 1 Mar 2026 at 16:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 15.0%
Draw: 26.0%
Away: 59.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
76.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — away@ 1.57
EV: -4.7%
Brest are in far better form, Metz are bottom with the league's worst defence, and H2H is strongly in Brest's favour. However, the odds are a bit short for the model's probability, so only a small stake is warranted.
double_chance — X2
Brest have lost only 1 of their last 5, while Metz have lost 4 of 5 and have a poor home record. The draw is possible but a home win is unlikely.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.2
EV: -16.3%
Both teams' recent matches trend under 2.5 goals, especially Metz who have scored just 3 in their last 5. But odds are very short so value is weak.
Match Analysis
Metz, sitting at the bottom of Ligue 1, face a tough task against mid-table Brest. Metz's recent form is dire, with four losses and just one goal scored in their last five matches, while conceding heavily. Brest, meanwhile, are unbeaten in four and come off a solid win over Marseille. The H2H record is also strongly in Brest's favour, with six wins in the last ten meetings. Metz's attack has been blunt and their defence leaky, while Brest's away record is not stellar but still superior to Metz's home form. Expect a controlled performance from Brest, likely keeping a clean sheet against a struggling Metz side.
Key Factors
- →Metz have lost 4 of their last 5 and scored only 3 goals in that span.
- →Brest have lost just 1 of their last 5, with 2 clean sheets.
- →Metz have the worst defence in Ligue 1 (52 conceded in 23).
- →Brest have dominated the H2H, winning 6 of the last 10.
- →Metz have only 2 home wins all season; Brest have 2 away wins but are more consistent.
- →Recent matches for both sides trend under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'No'.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, corners, cards) are missing, reducing precision of set piece and discipline projections.
- ⚠️Brest's away form is not strong historically, though Metz's home form is worse.
- ⚠️Odds on main markets are short, limiting value.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.