Middlesbrough vs Charlton Prediction
Championship · England
Middlesbrough
Charlton
📍 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
🗓️ Wednesday, 11 Mar 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 72.0%
Draw: 20.0%
Away: 8.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
77.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — Middlesbrough@ 1.13
EV: -2.0%
Middlesbrough have a strong home record (10W/5D/2L), are 2nd in the league, and have dominated Charlton in H2H. However, the odds are very short, limiting value.
over_under_2_5 — Over 2.5@ 3.3
EV: 35.0%
Model probability (0.41) is higher than implied by odds (0.303). Middlesbrough's attack creates chances, and Charlton's away defence is vulnerable (1.44 GA per away game).
correct_score — 2-0
Most likely correct score based on home/away splits, recent form, and H2H patterns.
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough, pushing for automatic promotion, host a struggling Charlton side at the Riverside. Boro have been strong at home and are in better form, creating plenty of chances and conceding few. Charlton have struggled away, scoring less than a goal per game, and have shown little attacking threat lately. H2H history is overwhelmingly in Boro's favour. Expect a controlled home win, likely with a clean sheet.
Key Factors
- →Middlesbrough's strong home form (10W/5D/2L, only 12 conceded in 17 home games)
- →Charlton's poor away record (3W/7D/8L, 16 scored, 26 conceded)
- →Boro average 1.54 goals scored per game, Charlton only 0.94
- →H2H: Boro have won 7 of last 10 vs Charlton
- →Charlton's last 5: only 0.8 goals scored/game, 0.6 shots/game (very low attacking output)
- →No major injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Charlton occasionally draw away (7/18), so a low-scoring draw is possible if Boro are wasteful.
- ⚠️Some recent Boro home games have ended in draws (3 of last 5 at home).
- ⚠️Limited recent away attacking data for Charlton; some stats missing for shots/shots on target.
- ⚠️Odds on Boro win and BTTS No are very short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.