NAC Breda vs FC Volendam Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
📍 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 at 19:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 32.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 30.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 4
EV: 116.0%
Both teams have shown defensive frailties (season conceded: NAC 36, Volendam 38), and BTTS has landed in 3 of last 5 for both. The model probability (0.54) is much higher than the implied probability (0.25), offering strong value.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.6
EV: 48.0%
Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (NAC 52%, Volendam 65%), and the model sees a 41% chance vs 28% implied. Recent H2H and team form suggest potential for goals.
1x2 — draw@ 3.95
EV: 51.0%
Both sides are closely matched (same goal difference, similar form), and the draw probability is 38% vs 25% implied. H2H history shows 3 draws in last 10.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two sides struggling in the lower half of the Eredivisie, both with leaky defences and inconsistent attacks. NAC Breda, at home, have not capitalized on home advantage (3W, 3D, 6L), while Volendam are poor away (1W, 2D, 8L, 7GF/23GA). Recent form is mixed, but Volendam come in with back-to-back wins, including an upset over PSV. Both teams average over a goal conceded per game, and their matches often feature BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Expect a tense, scrappy encounter with both teams likely to score, but neither able to dominate.
Key Factors
- →NAC Breda's home record is weak (3W, 3D, 6L), conceding 1.5 goals/game at home.
- →Volendam's away record is poor (1W, 2D, 8L), conceding over 2 goals/game away.
- →Both teams have a negative goal difference (-12) and low clean sheet rates (NAC 13%, Volendam 4%).
- →Recent form: Volendam WWLDL (2 straight wins), NAC WLDDL (1 win in last 5).
- →Season over 2.5 goal %: NAC 52%, Volendam 65%.
- →Head-to-head is balanced: 3 home wins, 4 away wins, 3 draws in last 10.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, etc.) missing for several recent games, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of analysis; late changes could affect probabilities.
- ⚠️Low confidence in corners and cards predictions due to incomplete recent data.
- ⚠️Both teams are unpredictable and can swing between high-scoring and low-scoring games.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.