Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Napoli
AS Roma
📍 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Feb 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 38.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 26.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
61.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — draw@ 2.76
EV: 0.0%
Both teams are strong defensively, Roma have the best away defensive record in Serie A, and Napoli are unbeaten at home. Recent form and H2H suggest a tight contest with a high draw probability.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.07
EV: -11.0%
Both teams have very low over 2.5 goal rates (Napoli 50%, Roma 20.8%), and both average less than 1 goal conceded per game. Recent H2H meetings are also low scoring.
btts — no@ 1.11
EV: -29.0%
Roma have conceded just 8 goals away all season and Napoli have a 37.5% clean sheet rate. Only 2 of Roma's last 5 had BTTS, and H2H leans low scoring.
Match Analysis
This is a high-stakes clash between two of Serie A's best defences. Napoli are unbeaten at home, but are missing key players in midfield and defence, which may blunt their attacking edge. Roma have been extremely solid away from home, conceding less than 0.7 goals per away game, but their attack is also conservative. Both teams have a lot to play for in the top-four race, so expect a tactical, cagey battle with few clear chances. A low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.
Key Factors
- →Napoli are unbeaten at home (8W 3D 0L), but have several key injuries (Di Lorenzo, Anguissa, De Bruyne, McTominay, Juan Jesus).
- →Roma have the best away defensive record in Serie A (8 goals conceded in 12 away games).
- →Both teams average under 1 goal conceded per game this season.
- →Recent form: Napoli WWLLD, Roma WLDDW.
- →Last 10 H2H: 5 Napoli wins, 4 draws, 1 Roma win; 7/10 under 2.5 goals.
- →Napoli: 50% over 2.5 goals; Roma: only 20.8% over 2.5 goals.
- →Roma have failed to draw away all season (7W 0D 5L), but their away games are low scoring.
- →Both teams have Champions League/Europa League distractions.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Napoli missing several key players in midfield and defence; impact on chemistry and defensive solidity is uncertain.
- ⚠️Roma have several questionable players (El Shaarawy, Ferguson, Soule, Vaz), which could affect their attacking options.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest a much higher chance of goals than the data supports; this could indicate market mispricing or missing information.
- ⚠️Some match stats missing for recent games (shots, possession, etc.), reducing model confidence in attacking/defensive projections.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.