NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
NEC Nijmegen
Heerenveen
📍 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
🗓️ Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 at 11:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 54.0%
Draw: 26.0%
Away: 20.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3
EV: 92.0%
Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, both average 2.4 goals scored per game in that span, and both have low clean sheet rates (NEC 14.8%, Heerenveen 11.1%). Bookmaker odds imply just a 33% chance, while model probability is 64%.
1x2 — draw@ 4.3
EV: 13.0%
Draw probability is slightly undervalued by the market. H2H history shows 3 draws in last 10, both teams in good form, and NEC have drawn 7/27 (26%) this season.
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen meet in a clash between two of the Eredivisie's most entertaining sides. Both are in excellent form, each winning their last three league games. NEC boast a strong home record and high scoring rate, but are vulnerable defensively, while Heerenveen have found attacking rhythm but also concede regularly. With both teams rarely keeping clean sheets and a history of goal-filled encounters, this fixture promises attacking football with both sides likely to score.
Key Factors
- →Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- →NEC average 2.48 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game; Heerenveen 1.74 scored, 1.63 conceded.
- →NEC home record: 8W, 2D, 3L (35:20 GF:GA); Heerenveen away: 5W, 2D, 6L (20:22 GF:GA).
- →Low clean sheet rates: NEC 14.8%, Heerenveen 11.1%.
- →Season over 2.5 goals: NEC 81.5%, Heerenveen 74.1%.
- →H2H: 7/10 last meetings had 2+ goals, 4/10 BTTS, 3 draws.
- →No major injuries for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing, reducing precision of xG-style modeling.
- ⚠️Lineups not yet confirmed; late changes could impact attacking/defensive strength.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds for some markets (OU 2.5, 1x2 home) seem inconsistent; value may shift pre-match.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.