Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction
Premier League · England
Newcastle
Bournemouth
📍 St. James' Park, Newcastle
🗓️ Saturday, 18 Apr 2026 at 14:00
Original Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 32.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 30.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3
EV: 62.0%
Both teams have high BTTS rates recently (Newcastle 4/5, Bournemouth 3/5), and both defences are conceding regularly. The model probability is much higher than the implied odds, offering strong value.
1x2 — draw@ 3.85
EV: 47.0%
Both teams have drawn a high number of matches (Bournemouth 15/32, Newcastle 6/32), and H2H is draw-heavy (6/10). Model shows a notable edge over bookmaker odds.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table clash between two sides with similar records and little to separate them in terms of recent form. Newcastle are coming off three straight losses, struggling defensively and lacking attacking punch, while Bournemouth are unbeaten in five and just claimed a big away win at Arsenal. Both teams have a tendency to concede, but also to score, and head-to-head history is draw-heavy. Expect a cautious, competitive game with both sides likely to get on the scoresheet, but neither dominating.
Key Factors
- →Newcastle on a 3-game losing streak, conceding 2+ in each.
- →Bournemouth unbeaten in 5, including an impressive win at Arsenal.
- →Both teams average 1.4–1.5 goals scored and conceded per game.
- →H2H: 6 of last 10 meetings ended in draws.
- →Bournemouth have drawn 15 of 32 league games this season.
- →No key injuries reported for either side.
- →Newcastle home record (8W, 2D, 6L) is only slightly better than Bournemouth's away (4W, 7D, 5L).
- →Recent BTTS rates are high for both teams.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing, reducing granularity.
- ⚠️Both teams are mid-table with little at stake, so motivation could vary.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late injuries or rotations possible.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest Newcastle are heavier favourites than the model.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.