Newport County vs Shrewsbury Prediction
League Two · England
Newport County
Shrewsbury
📍 Rodney Parade, Newport
🗓️ Saturday, 28 Mar 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 32.0%
Draw: 37.0%
Away: 31.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
52.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 4.5
EV: 116.0%
Model sees BTTS as close to a coin flip (48%), but bookmaker odds imply just 22%. Both teams have poor defensive records, Newport see BTTS in 4 of last 5, and Shrewsbury have conceded 2+ in 4 of last 5. Value is significant even if the match is low-scoring overall.
double_chance — 1X@ 1.91
EV: 32.0%
Model gives 1X at 69% (implied odds ~1.45), so 1.91 is value. Newport's home form is poor, but Shrewsbury are also on a 3-game losing streak and have only 4 away wins all season. H2H is against Newport, but recent form and motivation (relegation battle) suggest they can avoid defeat.
Match Analysis
This is a relegation six-pointer between two out-of-form sides. Newport County are desperate for points at home but have the worst home record in the league, while Shrewsbury are on a three-match losing streak and have also struggled away. Both teams have leaky defences and limited attacking output, so a cagey, low-quality match is likely, but the desperation could open things up in the second half. A draw is the likeliest result, but either side could edge it if they take their chances.
Key Factors
- →Both teams in poor form: Newport (LLWLW), Shrewsbury (LLLWL)
- →Newport have the league's worst home record (3W 4D 12L, 18-32 GF-GA)
- →Shrewsbury have lost 3 straight and conceded 8 in last 3 games
- →Neither team has kept a clean sheet in last 5 matches
- →Newport see BTTS in 4 of last 5; Shrewsbury failed to score in 3 of last 5
- →H2H: Shrewsbury unbeaten in last 4 vs Newport (3W 1D), all low-scoring
- →Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game this season
- →Motivation: Newport fighting relegation, Shrewsbury not yet safe
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Extremely poor recent form on both sides increases unpredictability
- ⚠️Limited attacking quality; goals may be scarce despite defensive issues
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games; derived averages may be less robust
- ⚠️Lineups unknown, so late injuries or rotations could impact predictions
- ⚠️Small H2H sample, with most recent matches low-scoring
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.