Osasuna vs Girona Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Osasuna
Girona
📍 Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Mar 2026 at 17:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 32.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 32.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
52.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.4
EV: 54.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (35%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (22.7%). Both teams have a season over 2.5 rate near 50%, and Girona's recent matches show attacking intent.
btts — yes@ 4
EV: 92.0%
Both teams have a high BTTS rate in recent matches (Osasuna 3/5, Girona 4/5). Odds imply only 25% chance, but model sees 48% probability.
1x2 — draw@ 3.35
EV: 21.0%
Teams are level on points, recent form is similar, and H2H shows 2 draws in last 5. Model sees draw as most likely single outcome.
Match Analysis
Osasuna and Girona meet in a mid-table clash with both sides level on points and recent form showing little to separate them. Osasuna's strong home record is offset by Girona's improved attacking output in recent weeks. The fixture is likely to be tightly contested, with goals at a premium but value on the over given both sides' over 2.5 rates and attacking intent. Expect a cautious first half, with the match opening up after the break. Discipline and set pieces may play a key role.
Key Factors
- →Both teams have identical points (34) and are 11th and 12th in the table.
- →Osasuna are strong at home (7W 4D 2L), Girona average away (3W 6D 5L).
- →Girona have scored in every one of their last 5 matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 2 of 5.
- →Head-to-head: Girona have won 3 of last 5, but Osasuna won last home H2H.
- →Both teams' season over 2.5 rates are near 50%.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
- →Both teams average low first half goals in last 5 matches.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats unavailable for several recent games (shots, possession, etc.), reducing precision.
- ⚠️H2H sample is small and may not fully reflect current squads.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest strong under bias; model finds value on overs but with moderate confidence.
- ⚠️Lineups not released yet; late changes could impact value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.